Since whatever gets nominated I will need to watch, I guess it's a good idea to try and predict which films will be nominated for best picture. In the past I wouldn't pay attention but just going on what was advertised in late December as a big movie and not think about it until they were announced. Seeing how I am doing a blog now and my goal is to see every film nominated for best picture, I have been watching a bit more closely this year.
Since 2009 the rules have been changed allowing up to ten films that can be nominated. There will always be a minimum of five, but it doesn't have to be ten. A film needs to get a minimum of five percent to be eligible. The academy sends out ballots in late December allowing voters about two and a half weeks to vote. They take a week and a half to tabulate and will be making the announcement this year on Tuesday January 24th. Beginning of February ballots are mailed, about three weeks to get them in and at the end of the month the big show.
My guess is that there will be ten nominees this year, there appears to be enough good films out there to garner enough votes to make the threshold. I should mention that I have not seen any of these movies since I prefer to watch films in the comfort of my house as opposed to going to a movie theater. The only film I did see in the theater last year I know won't be nominated, Atlas Shrugged Part I, but I'm glad that at least it was made.
The following I am very confident will be nominated:
Midnight in Paris
All of these have been nominated for other awards, The Artist and The Descendants both winning Golden Globes for best Musical/Comedy and best Drama. Hugo is Martin Scorsese so he will also get a best director nod as well. Midnight in Paris is Woody Allen so he will also get a best screenplay nod as well, not too sure if he will get a best director, but just might. Moneyball has been mentioned as one of the best films of the year, it seems like a natural fit.
The remaining films on the list are a bit of a guess:
Adventures of Tin Tin
I don't think any of these will win, but they will get enough votes to put them on the ballot. I know 50/50 is a film about someone dealing with cancer, that will tug heartstrings and get nominated. There is always a kids film on the list, seeing how Adventures of Tin Tin won the Golden Globe, seems like a good guess. The Help I'm rather confident it will get in the top ten and very confident it won't win. J. Edgar is a bio pic, usually good for a nomination, and is a Clint Eastwood film which may get him a best director possibly. I would be confident that Leonardo DiCaprio will get a best actor nomination. War Horse is a Steven Spielberg movie, so it will get a nomination based on that I believe.
In a few days I'll know how correct I am, and then try to figure out who will win.