Sunday, February 26, 2017

Picks for the 2016 Oscars

I know, I'm getting these in just under the wire.  And it has been a year since I've posted.  But I have been able to see a few nominated movies, mostly from last year and a few of the ones nominated this year.  I'll get a post out about that soon.

So it seems this year there are a lot of predictable winners.  That being my luck, I'll probably only get five right.

Visual Effects
Chris - The Jungle Book
Adam - The Jungle Book

This one I went with the experts.  Haven't seen any of the films nominated, but I figure they must be right.

Sound Mixing
Chris - La La Land
Adam - Hacksaw Ridge

Again this one I went with the experts.  I think it's a war movie, so usually those do well with sound awards.

Sound Editing
Chris - Hacksaw Ridge
Adam - Hacksaw Ridge

Even though this isn't expected to win this category, my thinking is that if it is going to win one, it should win both.

Chris - La La Land
Adam - La La Land

I know that La La Land is going to win a lot of awards but not all of them.  This is one category it should take easily.

Makeup & Hairstyling
Chris - Star Trek Beyond
Adam - Star Trek Beyond

Of the three films listed, one is a foreign film and the other some sort of Mountain Dew fueled in your face extreme fighting film.  I think this is a safe bet.

Costume Design
Chris - Jackie
Adam - La La Land

This is one of those where the critics are split.  I think La La Land should take this one not because of the great outfits, but because the film represents Hollywood.

Production Design
Chris - Hail, Caesar!
Adam - La La Land

Just like the last category, I think if a choice is between a film with only one nomination, or one that is nominated for almost everything, people will pick the one nominated for everything else.

Film Editing
Chris - La La Land
Adam - La La Land

La La Land will get a mix of technical and major awards during the night.  It should probably have the most awards by the end of the evening.

Music Original Song
Chris - City of Stars
Adam - City of Stars

I've seen La La Land, and if I remember correctly, this is the opening number.  I was filled with nausea and was ready to leave the theater.  Thankfully the rest of the movie wasn't like the opening scene, but this has way too much schmaltz to lose.

Music Original Score
Chris - La La Land
Adam - La La Land

Let's see, a musical made about Hollywood, not winning the Oscar?

Writing Adapted Screenplay
Chris - Moonlight
Adam - Moonlight

This is one of the two guaranteed awards this film will win at the Oscars.  Having seen two of the movies nominated, I am hoping that this one is better and not being given as a political statement. Hidden Figures and Lion are both such amazing screenplays and wouldn't mind seeing an upset for one of those two.

Writing Original Screenplay
Chris - Manchester By The Sea
Adam - Manchester By The Sea

This year doesn't look like a strong category, and La La Land could still take the award in their attempt to be the first major sweep since 1991.  But many of the critics are picking this one, I haven't seen it yet so I have no idea.

Short Film Animated
Chris - Piper
Adam - Piper

And now we enter the realm of pure randomness.  There is no way to come close to even guessing who will win, just pick one.

Short Film Live Action
Chris - Ennemis Interieurs
Adam - Timecode

I don't know how they decide which one is best, or who even votes.  But I find it easiest to pick a name that sounds cool and go with it.

Documentary Short Subject
Chris - Joe's Violin
Adam - The White Helmets

One year I actually got to see all the films in one of these categories and watched them all right after one another.  The one that I thought should have won?  It lost.  The second best one? Lost.  In fact the worst most confusing film of the bunch won?!?!?!?  This is why I guess and rant.

Best Animated
Chris - Kubo and the Two Strings
Adam - Zootopia

This is a category that has actually become more competitive over the years.  Usually there is one major film that runs away with it, but this year it could be up in the air.  Or not.

Best Documentary
Chris - I Am Not Your Negro
Adam - O.J.: Made In America

So the odds of the Oscars not being political being at zero, I think my wife's choice is a good one. But will members of the academy want to award a film about James Baldwin or give it as an acting award to someone who is black.  A film about O.J. is also fascinating to millennials since they don't remember O.J. Simpson playing football, jumping over suitcases at the airport (look it up for Hertz), or the never ending trial where everyone was disappointed with the outcome.

Best Foreign Language
Chris - Toni Erdmann
Adam - Toni Erdmann

Even before I did my research, I heard that this is a really good film from Germany.  There is an Iranian film nominated as well, but there was one awarded years ago that really wasn't that great, it was more of a political statement.  I'm hoping for better this year.

Best Supporting Actress
Chris - Viola Davis
Adam - Viola Davis

This is supposed to be Viola Davis's year to win.  Octavia Spencer and Nicole Kidman have both won Oscars and were terrific in the films that I have seen, but that might be working against them this year.

Best Supporting Actor
Chris - Mahershala Ali
Adam - Mahershala Ali

He has been winning at every award show so far this season, making him a strong probability that he will win the Oscar too.

Best Actress
Chris - Emma Stone
Adam - Emma Stone

Emma Stone is going to win.  Here is another wild guess, it's going to rain in Forest Grove this week.

Best Actor
Chris - Casey Affleck
Adam - Casey Affleck

So for some reason since he won the Golden Globe he has been the front runner.  Who knows, seems like a safe bet.

Best Director
Chris - La La Land
Adam - La La Land

Damian Chazelle should win this year.  Not much strict competition.  Mel Gibson just being nominated is a victory for him.

Best Picture
Chris - La La Land
Adam - La La Land

Three of the last five best picture winners have been movies about Hollywood or actors.  The Artist won in 2011, but that was expected since it went back to the early years of Hollywood and was a good movie.  But in 2012 when Argo won then it was obvious that they vote for films that are about them. Seriously, it was a joke, Argo didn't even get nominated for best director.  I know films will win best picture and not best director always, but they are nominated for best director!  Lincoln was robbed and history will know this.  Then in 2014 Birdman winning only proved what is now known, if it is a movie about actors or Hollywood, or both, it's going to win.  Don't get me wrong, Birdman is a very good film, one of the top five, but not the best in my opinion.  And so this year if all was fair, Lion would win best picture, but knowing how the academy votes, the winner will be La La Land.